Associated manuscript: Assessing the calibration of transition probabilities in a multistate model out of the initial state
This document contains all the supplementary Figures associated with the aforementioned manuscript. The supplementary material is split into 7 sections:
The first section of this document contains plots assessing the moderate calibration in the large development sample analysis for the pseudo-value and MLR-IPCW methods in the non-informative censoring (RC) scenario. To showcase each methods ability to appropriately assess non-linear patterns of miscalibration, there is a seperate plot for each method, containing the calibration plots for the perfectly calibrated, over predicting and under predicting transition probabilities. These plots are of the same type as Figure 2 from the main manuscript.
Figure S1: Assessment of moderate calibration for the BLR-IPCW approach in scenario RC, large sample analysis
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Figure S2: Assessment of moderate calibration for the pseudo-value approach in scenario RC, large sample analysis
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Figure S3: Assessment of moderate calibration for the MLR-IPCW approach in scenario RC, large sample analysis
The second section of this document contains plots assessing the moderate calibration in the large development sample analysis for the BLR-IPCW, pseudo-value and MLR-IPCW methods in the weakly and strongly associated censoring scenarios (WAC and SAC). There is a seperate plot for each type of predicted transition probability, where all three methods (BLR-IPCW, pseudo-value and MLR-IPCW) are compared. These plots are of the same type as Figures 3 and 4 from the main manuscript.
Figure S4: Assessment of moderate calibration for each method
Scenario = WAC, Perfectly calibrated transition probabilities---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Figure S5: Assessment of moderate calibration for each method
Scenario = WAC, Miscalibrated 1---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Figure S6: Assessment of moderate calibration for each method
Scenario = WAC, Miscalibrated 2---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Figure S7: Assessment of moderate calibration for each method
Scenario = SAC, Perfectly calibrated transition probabilities---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Figure S8: Assessment of moderate calibration for each method
Scenario = SAC, Miscalibrated 1---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Figure S9: Assessment of moderate calibration for each method
Scenario = SAC, Miscalibrated 2
The mean calibration according to AJ, BLR-IPCW and MLR-IPCW is presented for the perfectly calibrated, and miscalibrated predicted transition probabilities. This is Figure 4 from the manuscript.
Figure S10: Large sample analysis, mean calibration
This section contains the moderate calibration plots for methods BLR-IPCW and pseudo-value in the small sample analysis. The calibration curves from 200 simulation iterations are superimposed on top of eachother. Given MLR-IPCW was a scatter plot, we could not devise a suitable way to present the scatter plots across the 200 simulation iterations. This is akin to the problem that it is unclear how to present sampling uncertainty (i.e. a confidence interval) for the calibration scatter plots derived from MLR-IPCW, whereas confidence intervals can be estimated and presented for the calibraion curves from the BLR-IPCW and pseudo-value approaches (e.g. see results from large sample analysis, moderate calibration).
Figure S11: Assessment of moderate calibration for BLR-IPCW and pseudo-value approach in the small sample analysis
Scenario = RC, Perfectly calibrated transition probabilities, N = 1500
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Figure S12: Assessment of moderate calibration for BLR-IPCW and pseudo-value approach in the small sample analysis
Scenario = RC, Miscalibrated 1, N = 1500
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Figure S13: Assessment of moderate calibration for BLR-IPCW and pseudo-value approach in the small sample analysis
Scenario = RC, Miscalibrated 2, N = 1500
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Figure S14: Assessment of moderate calibration for BLR-IPCW and pseudo-value approach in the small sample analysis
Scenario = RC, Perfectly calibrated transition probabilities, N = 3000